Ramping Up or Ramping Down?

Things look like they are heating up, with the number of laboratory-confirmed cases in America more than doubling today and Russia and England suspending consular services in Mexico City, and a whole bunch of countries issuing travel alerts on Mexico. Mexican authorities have shut down all schools across the country and Texas authorities are shutting down more schools around San Antonio.

The strongest impression on me has been the seriousness and urgency of the leading public health agencies. The World Health Organization raised the pandemic alert level to Phase 4, that last stop before a full-blown pandemic. The CDC and its Mexican and Canadian counterparts have been all over the news giving interviews and sharing information, showing everyone they're out in front of things. That is a good thing!

On the other hand, Mexican public health people said in a press conference tonight that the number of new cases has been declining each of the last three days. But like everything, it's all in how you manipulate the numbers. The official WHO tally for Mexico stands now at 26 confirmed with seven deaths, but that number appears to be coming from the CDC and differs from the tally the Mexican health minister has out there (110 reported today and overall death toll over 150). Both of those numbers seem quite low for a country that has closed the capitol city and every school from coast to coast; suffice it to say that I do not put much stock in the accuracy of those numbers. Actions speak louder than words, and the actions of the Mexican government and the Mexican people (Mexico City looks about as dead as Terlingua, TX on TV) paint a far less optimistic picture. Nevertheless, maybe this thing is not catching fire, despite the earnestness coming out of the CDC and WHO and the extraordinary actions in Mexico.

There are no reported or confirmed American deaths that I have been able to find, but the acting director of the CDC, Dr. Richard Besser, says, "I wouldn't be overly reassured by that. There are many reasons that could explain that...I expect that the spectrum of the disease (in the U.S.) will expand."

The media, of course, are overhyping this and working everyone into a frenzy. If you get a few confirmed or even suspected cases in your metro area you can expect the deluge to follow. Three very basic, very easy, things to remember to keep you and your crew healthy: wash your hands compulsively (soap or alcohol-based sanitizer), don't get within six feet of anyone if you don't have to (ESPECIALLY dyspnea patients), and don't be shy with the masks (N95 for you, surgical mask for the patient, even if he's on O2).

The Texas Department of State Health Services has some good personal protection guidelines specific to first responders.