Disorder on the Doorstep*

* I stole this title from a chapter of John Robb's intriguing book on the future of terrorism and globalization.


So the Department of Defense is worried about Mexico and the news has finally trickled down to the AP. In short, a report that hopes to foresee looming and emerging strategic threats states "In terms of worst-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico," (36).

IF this were to happen what would be the fallout for the fire service in the border states? Affected Mexican states are burdened with mass killings on almost a daily basis, the police and military are under direct assault, and the legitimacy of local governments is in question. I doubt we'll see a challenge to legitimacy out of all this, but we could see the mass killings and direct combat with LE and the military.

For the fire service, I'd be more concerned by the flow of refugees coming across the border in case things get worse. The American fire service has never been on the front lines of a humanitarian crisis so I am not sure what it would look like. Along the border and the corridors leading from the border to places like Phoenix, LA, and Houston, you could have an influx of thousands (tens of thousands?) of people in a matter of days. This happened in the Houston and Beaumont areas during Katrina when people from NOLA packed hotels, four, six, ten to a room. EMS calls will go through the roof as you have poor people packed tight in unfamiliar surroundings under high stress. They won't have their meds, there will be assaults and other criminal activity, and multi-dwelling fires will take on added urgency.

Just something to think about an emerging potential threat for the fire service, and the report itself is interesting as general background.